Temperatures across the UAE are expected to dip only marginally over the coming days, but residents are likely to feel significantly colder as fresh winds sweep across the country, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
Forecasters say the overall change in daytime temperatures will be limited, even as some inland areas have already recorded near-freezing lows. The key factor, meteorologists stress, will be the strengthening of north-westerly winds, which are expected to intensify the sensation of cold.
Dr Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the NCM, said residents should not expect a dramatic fall in actual temperatures. “The temperature will be the same, there will not be a change. There will be a decrease but not too much,” he said.
He explained that any drop will be limited to around one to three degrees in most parts of the country. Despite this, people may feel colder than usual, particularly during early mornings and evenings when winds are strongest.
The changing weather pattern is being driven by fresh north-westerly winds moving in from the north. These winds began affecting coastal waters first before gradually extending inland, influencing conditions across much of the UAE.
Dr Habib noted that these winds can be “sometimes strong over the sea,” warning that marine conditions are expected to worsen. The Arabian Sea is forecast to be rough to very rough throughout the day, posing risks to small boats and marine activities.
Although the temperature change itself will be modest, the impact of wind chill will be noticeable. “You will not feel too much decrease in temperature. But since Sunday, the north-westerly winds have continued to affect the land area,” Dr Habib said.
He added that the feeling of cold will be “more associated with the north-westerly wind,” particularly in open areas and regions exposed to sustained gusts.
Several inland areas have already experienced sharp drops in minimum temperatures. In the western region of Al Dhafra, temperatures have fallen to between one and three degrees, highlighting the seasonal extremes that can occur during UAE winters.
Mountain regions, including Jebel Hafeet and Jebel Jais, continue to record lower temperatures due to their elevation, which exceeds 1,000 metres. These areas are more prone to cold nights, especially when winds interact with mountainous terrain.
Raknah, located north of Al Ain, has seen particularly pronounced cooling. Dr Habib explained that the area’s geography plays a major role. “Raknah has special characteristics. It has the orographic effect, when the land forces the air to rise,” he said.
This interaction between wind direction and terrain can reduce minimum temperatures by three to four degrees. While daytime highs remain largely unaffected, nights and early mornings can become notably colder than surrounding areas.
Last Friday morning, light frost was recorded in Raknah after temperatures dropped sharply following a spell of cold winds. For long-time residents, such conditions are a familiar winter marker.
Raknah has developed a reputation for recording sub-zero temperatures, with locals often sharing images of thermometers rimmed with icicles and thin sheets of ice forming overnight during the coldest periods.
Looking ahead, wind patterns are expected to shift after Monday. “After Monday, the source of the wind will change, coming from the east and north-east,” Dr Habib said.
This change is expected to bring a slight increase in temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, with readings rising by one to three degrees. However, the relief may be short-lived.
Another slight drop in temperatures is forecast towards the end of the week, once again accompanied by fresh winds that could heighten the feeling of cold across the country.
The NCM has also forecast a chance of light rain over islands and parts of the Arabian Sea, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall is expected mainly in western areas.
In addition, fog may develop over the next few days, especially in the western parts of the UAE. Motorists have been advised to exercise caution during early morning hours when visibility may be reduced.