Petrol prices in the UAE could see a slight decrease in November 2025 if global crude oil prices continue to stay on the lower side for the rest of October. The adjustment, expected to be announced on October 31, will reflect the country’s policy of aligning local fuel rates with global price movements.
The average closing price of Brent crude for October has been around $65.22 per barrel — lower than September’s $67. This marginal decline may translate into reduced prices at the pump next month, following the recent increase of seven fils per litre in October.
Currently, Super 98 is priced at Dh2.77 per litre, Special 95 at Dh2.58, and E-Plus 91 at Dh2.71. If the global trend holds, motorists could enjoy a slight reprieve after several months of mixed fluctuations in global energy markets.
Oil prices have been volatile this month, hitting nearly five-month lows due to fears of a supply glut. However, prices rebounded in recent days after the United States imposed sanctions on Russian oil firms, prompting concerns about restricted exports.
By Friday evening, Brent crude was trading at $66.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $61.61. Market analysts suggest that despite temporary rebounds, the broader trend remains bearish.
“Crude oil prices remain under pressure, reflecting growing expectations of surplus and weakening global demand,” said Nadir Belbarka, an energy analyst at XMArabia.
“Forecasts suggest global supply could rise by over three million barrels per day in 2025 and a further 2.4 million barrels in 2026. Meanwhile, demand growth is expected to slow to just 700,000 barrels per day annually, creating a supply imbalance that continues to push oil to its lowest levels in months.”
Belbarka added that while the surplus outlook is weighing on prices, ongoing geopolitical factors such as concerns over Russian export capacity, Iranian production limits, and instability in key shipping routes have provided a modest degree of price support.
Major global banks remain divided on the outlook for oil. Bank of America maintains a $55 price forecast, suggesting that steady Asian consumption and Opec+ supply discipline could prevent a significant market collapse.
Citigroup, on the other hand, anticipates a further downward trend, predicting that crude could drop to $50 a barrel if economic momentum weakens and geopolitical risks subside.
For UAE consumers, November’s rates will depend on how Brent crude performs in the final days of October. The country’s Fuel Price Committee will announce the official petrol and diesel rates on October 31.
Until then, drivers are keeping a close watch on international markets, hopeful that the easing global oil prices will translate into modest relief at local petrol stations next month.